Título: Best estimate plus uncertainty methodology for forecasting electrical balances in isolated grids: The decarbonized Canary Islands by 2040
Autor: C. Berna-Escriche; Rivera-Durán, Yago; Álvarez-Piñeiro, Lucas; Muñoz-Cobo, J. L.
Resumen: [EN] This paper investigates the challenges isolated islands face in transitioning from fossil fuel-based electricity
generation to renewable energy sources. The Canary Islands serve as a case study, where photovoltaic and wind
power are the primary renewables, but their variability requires a deep techno-economic analysis. The island¿s
energy demand is predicted to rise by 100% due to economic growth, electrification and electric vehicles.
However, implementing renewable systems encounters obstacles, such as limited suitable sites and protected
areas. The study uses Wilks¿ methodology and Monte Carlo sampling to explore 59 combinations of randomly
selected inputs of the uncertain variables, aiming for a 95/95% coverage and confidence level in the results. In
most cases, they experience energy shortages, failing to meet electric demand. Even though a new generation mix
appears to cover demand under all circumstances, the uncertainty unveils a different reality, leading to an
approximate 25% increase in system costs. Surpluses in energy generation, while seemingly positive, can pose
challenges. The new system¿s Levelized Cost of Energy increases from around 14 to 17c€/kWh. These cost increases are contingent upon future performance and the variability of uncertain parameters, leading to excesses
ranging from slightly below 25% to over 40%.
