Best estimate plus uncertainty methodology for forecasting electrical balances in isolated grids: The decarbonized Canary Islands by 2040
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| dc.contributor.author | C. Berna-Escriche
|
es_ES |
| dc.contributor.author | Rivera-Durán, Yago
|
es_ES |
| dc.contributor.author | Álvarez-Piñeiro, Lucas
|
es_ES |
| dc.contributor.author | Muñoz-Cobo, J. L.
|
es_ES |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-02-27T19:03:04Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2025-02-27T19:03:04Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024-05 | es_ES |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0360-5442 | es_ES |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10251/214924 | |
| dc.description.abstract | [EN] This paper investigates the challenges isolated islands face in transitioning from fossil fuel-based electricity generation to renewable energy sources. The Canary Islands serve as a case study, where photovoltaic and wind power are the primary renewables, but their variability requires a deep techno-economic analysis. The island¿s energy demand is predicted to rise by 100% due to economic growth, electrification and electric vehicles. However, implementing renewable systems encounters obstacles, such as limited suitable sites and protected areas. The study uses Wilks¿ methodology and Monte Carlo sampling to explore 59 combinations of randomly selected inputs of the uncertain variables, aiming for a 95/95% coverage and confidence level in the results. In most cases, they experience energy shortages, failing to meet electric demand. Even though a new generation mix appears to cover demand under all circumstances, the uncertainty unveils a different reality, leading to an approximate 25% increase in system costs. Surpluses in energy generation, while seemingly positive, can pose challenges. The new system¿s Levelized Cost of Energy increases from around 14 to 17c€/kWh. These cost increases are contingent upon future performance and the variability of uncertain parameters, leading to excesses ranging from slightly below 25% to over 40%. | es_ES |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The authors would like to extend their gratitude to the Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad and by Agencia Nacional de Investigacion under the FPI grant BES-2017-080031. Funding for open access charge: CRUE-Universitat Politecnica de Valencia. | es_ES |
| dc.language | Inglés | es_ES |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | es_ES |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Energy | es_ES |
| dc.rights | Reconocimiento (by) | es_ES |
| dc.subject | BEPU analysis | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Monte Carlo sampling | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Wilks methodology | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Stand-alone system | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Electric energy balance | es_ES |
| dc.subject | Renewable energy | es_ES |
| dc.subject.classification | ESTADISTICA E INVESTIGACION OPERATIVA | es_ES |
| dc.title | Best estimate plus uncertainty methodology for forecasting electrical balances in isolated grids: The decarbonized Canary Islands by 2040 | es_ES |
| dc.type | Artículo | es_ES |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130801 | es_ES |
| dc.relation.projectID | info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/MINECO//BES-2017-080031/ | es_ES |
| dc.rights.accessRights | Abierto | es_ES |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Universitat Politècnica de València. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales - Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyers Industrials | es_ES |
| dc.contributor.affiliation | Universitat Politècnica de València. Escola Tècnica Superior d'Enginyeria Informàtica | es_ES |
| dc.description.bibliographicCitation | C. Berna-Escriche; Rivera-Durán, Y.; Álvarez-Piñeiro, L.; Muñoz-Cobo, JL. (2024). Best estimate plus uncertainty methodology for forecasting electrical balances in isolated grids: The decarbonized Canary Islands by 2040. Energy. 294. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.130801 | es_ES |
| dc.description.accrualMethod | S | es_ES |
| dc.relation.publisherversion | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2024.130801 | es_ES |
| dc.type.version | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion | es_ES |
| dc.description.volume | 294 | es_ES |
| dc.relation.pasarela | S\512120 | es_ES |
| dc.contributor.funder | Universitat Politècnica de València | es_ES |
| dc.contributor.funder | Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad | es_ES |
| upv.costeAPC | 3630 | es_ES |
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